Sold prices, not asking prices
Anyone can list an item for any price. An active listing tells you what one seller hopes to get. A sold listing tells you what a buyer actually paid. When the two disagree, trust the sale.
Active listings still matter. They show how much competition you will have and roughly where the ceiling is. If there are dozens of the same item listed and only a few have sold recently, you will either wait or cut your price. But when you decide what to pay at the store, base it on sold prices.
On eBay you can see sold listings by searching for the item and turning on the Sold items filter. eBay sellers can also use the product research tool in Seller Hub, which shows sales over a longer window.
Step 1: match the exact item
A comp only counts if it is the same thing you are holding. Close is not close enough.
- Search by model number, ISBN, UPC or style number when there is one. It narrows results to the exact product.
- Match the variant: size, color, capacity, edition, region and year.
- Match what is included. A camera body alone and a camera with a lens are different items. So are a game with and without its case.
- Watch for lots and bundles. A sale of five items is not a price for one.
If you can't find the exact item, say so to yourself. A guess based on similar items is a guess, and it should come with a lower buy price.
Step 2: match condition
Condition moves price more than most new resellers expect. New in box, used and working, and for parts can be three very different numbers for the same model.
Sort your comps by condition and compare like with like. Read the descriptions and look at the photos: a listing marked used might be nearly new or heavily worn. If your item has a flaw, look for sold comps that disclosed a similar flaw.
Step 3: look at recent sales
Prices drift. A collectible can spike after a show or a reissue and settle months later. Seasonal items like coats and holiday decor sell better in season. Give more weight to the last few weeks of sales than to sales from half a year ago, and be careful with any item that only has old sales.
Step 4: ignore the outliers
Every set of comps has a few strange ones. A sale far above the rest might have been a rare variant or an auction with two eager bidders. A sale far below might have been mislabeled, damaged or a quick best offer.
Drop prices that are wildly out of line with the rest and look at the middle. The median, the price in the middle when you line them up, is a better guide than the average because one outlier can't drag it around.
Step 5: include shipping in the comparison
Two sales at the same item price are not the same if one charged the buyer shipping and the other offered free shipping. Compare the total the buyer paid. If you plan to offer free shipping, your item price needs to cover the label.
Step 6: turn the range into numbers
After matching and cleaning, you should have a handful of sales that look like your item. From them, take three numbers:
- A low end, around what the cheaper matching sales went for. This is roughly where it sells quickly.
- A middle, the median of your clean comps. This is your expected sale price.
- A high end, around what the better matching sales went for. This is your list price if you are patient and your item is clean.
Price your buy decision on the middle, not the high end. Listing near the top and accepting offers is a fine selling strategy, but if you pay as if the top price is guaranteed, a slow month turns into a loss.
Step 7: take out fees and shipping
Your expected sale price is not your money. Marketplace fees come out first, then the shipping label if you pay it. On eBay, fees in most categories are a percentage of the whole sale including shipping and tax, plus a small per-order fee. Our eBay fee calculator shows the exact amount, and the reseller profit calculator compares the same sale across marketplaces.
What is left after fees and shipping is your net. That is the number you compare against the price tag.
How many comps is enough
There is no magic number, but more matching sales means more confidence. One or two sales could be flukes. Five or more recent matching sales in similar condition is a much stronger signal. If you only have a couple, treat the price as a rough guide and lower what you are willing to pay.
When comps disagree a lot, the spread itself tells you something: condition, completeness or the exact variant is doing the work. Look closer before you buy.
Common pricing mistakes
- Pricing from the single highest sale you can find.
- Pricing from active listings that have been sitting for months.
- Comparing a loose item to complete-in-box sales.
- Forgetting that shipping and fees together can take a large share of a cheap sale.
- Ignoring how many are already listed. Lots of competition means a slower sale.
Pricing in the aisle
Doing all of this on a phone in a store is slow, and that is where most bad buys happen: you are in a hurry and guess. Oddlot does the first pass for you from a photo. It identifies the item, matches it to current eBay listings, drops weak matches and outliers, takes out fees and shipping, and shows your max buy with every comp it used so you can check the work. When the evidence is thin or the comps disagree, it says CHECK instead of inventing a number.